Categories
Politics

What Would Americans Do?

In America, how did we get to a place where we have difficulty putting ourselves in the shoes of Palestinians?

What do we expect of them?

According to the prevailing narrative in America, there was peace between the Palestinians and Israel until the militant wing of Hamas launched a terrorist attack against innocent Israeli civilians on October 7th, 2023. In this attack, Hamas committed unspeakable atrocities and according to the official Israeli reporting, they slaughtered 1,139 people and took 252 hostages.

We are told the atrocities committed on October 7th by Hamas were an order of magnitude greater than 9/11 in America because the slaughtered victims represent a higher percentage of the Israeli population (approximately 8 million) than the victims killed on 9/11 (approximately 3,000 vs. a U.S. population of approximately 285 million at the time).  

In response to the attack by Hamas, Israel has launched a comprehensive attack against the total population of Palestinians in Gaza.

Before firing one bullet or launching one bomb into Gaza, Israel stopped all deliveries of food, water, fuel, medical supplies, and other good and services needed to sustain the Palestinian population of 2.3 million.

Then Israel launched a military bombing campaign that exceeds the destructive capacity of any military action in the modern era. The military bombing campaign was followed by a full-scale ground invasion by one of the world’s most technologically advanced militaries.

Since October 7th, 2023, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, Israel has slaughtered 34,904 people, including 14,500 children and 9,500 women.

In the bombing campaign, according to the United Nations and the World Health Organization, Israel has damaged or destroyed:

  • Over half of all homes
  • 80% of all commercial facilities
  • 75% of all schools
  • 85% of all groundwater wells
  • All 35 hospitals (only 12 remain partially functioning)
  • 267 places of worship (all faiths and denominations)

Yet the prevailing narrative in America persists that Israel’s response is a justifiable expression of the right of self defense for the Hamas attack on October 7th.

If October 7th was an order of magnitude worse than 9/11 because of Israel’s smaller relative population, what is almost 35,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza out of a total population of 2.3 million?

Given the fact that Israel is not yet satisfied, as reflected by the newly launched attack on Rafah, the relative casualty count proves that Israel and her enabler, America, do not value a Palestinian life on par with an Israeli life. Consider, more than 10 Palestinian children have been slaughtered for every one Israeli slaughtered on October 7th [Palestinian children slaughtered: 14,500 vs. total Israelis slaughtered on 10/7: 1,139].

This is what dehumanization looks like.

To break the fog of dehumanization in our prevailing narrative, lets consider what Americans would do if we were Palestinians.

Imagine if in 1947, countries from around the world had determined in order to protect indigenous communities from genocidal suffering, 58% of the United States would be designated as a new country for the world’s indigenous communities. This new country, hypothetically called “Indigia”, would become the home of indigenous people from around the world. Any indigenous person from any country would have an absolute right of return to make a new life in Indigia.

As for the Americans who have lived on the land of Indigia for generations, they would be given a choice: move to the remaining 42% of United States or die. There would be no compensation or standing granted for redress for any harms suffered.

What would Americans do?

Our obvious response would be to resist the loss of our land by any means necessary.

Yet with each attempt to resist, Indigia, fortified by the financial, military, and diplomatic support of the wealthiest countries in the world, crushed our rebellions and punished us by taking more of the United States.

Reduced to two separate encampments comprised of approximately 22% of the former United States, we began launching waves of non-violent resistance that were met with violent oppression. We followed with increasingly violent protests that were put down with even harsher oppressive force.

What would Americans do?

Would we ever accept the sovereign legitimacy of Indigia to territory we occupied for generations?

Would we find the global consensus in favor of Indigia a compelling justification to agree to live peacefully on our splintered territory?

This is where we were on October 6th, 2023.

What would Americans have done?

Categories
Politics

An Open Email Regarding Vladimir Putin

This email was sent to Breaking Points on February 23, 2024

Krystal & Saagar,

I am writing to you again on this topic because I view the Tucker Carlson Interview with Vladimir Putin as a historically important event and I believe your analysis on Monday’s show profoundly missed the mark. So you know, I am a multi-year premium subscriber because I appreciate the transparency and intellectual integrity you both exude by thoughtfully offering critiques of your own ideological allies. Please accept the following analysis in the spirit of constructive critique. One last side note: For most of the last 20+ years I have had complete contempt for Tucker Carlson because I viewed him as an intellectually dishonest shill for the Republican establishment. Over the last year I have begun to reconsider.

Critique of the Putin Interview

[Copy of Official Transcript was attached to original email]

  1. When Tucker Carlson asked the first question [Why did Russia attack Ukraine?], framing it within the context of Putin’s quote regarding his concern that NATO (America) may launch an attack from Ukrainian territory, Putin responded by asking Tucker “whether this interview was a show or are we having a serious conversation?” Tucker agreed this was a serious conversation. To understand what Putin meant you must consider Russian culture. A serious conversation, as he demonstrated, involves addressing the root causes which necessarily considers the historical context that drives current events. In short, Russians are verbose but as Tucker’s introduction comment stated “Putin was not filibustering”. Putin’s history lesson explained how cultural identity in Eastern Europe did not align with national borders. To this Tucker made that same assumption you both did [he attacked Ukraine to unite the greater Russia], he twice asked “if Putin thought Ukrainian borders were illegitimate, why didn’t Putin attack when he took office in 2000?” Putin suggested he is getting there but had not finished his answer. Putin’s answer was Russia did not attack Ukraine until the U.S. had financed the violent overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine (who was committed to neutrality) and installed an anti-Russian government open to joining NATO. This installed government launched a military weaponized attack on the ethnically Russian Ukrainians in the southeast provinces. This is when Russia first attacked Ukraine back in 2014. Russia negotiated a peace agreement with Ukraine, witnessed and guaranteed by Poland, Germany and France, called the Minsk Agreement, which protected ethnically Russian Ukrainians while leaving their provinces within the national borders of Ukraine. The U.S. installed Ukrainian government reneged on the Minsk Agreement and Germany and France announced publicly they would not enforce the agreement. The U.S. and NATO then began arming Ukraine and building military bases in Ukraine. This was Russia’s redline and where they committed to attack Ukraine in February 2022.    
  2. Putin provided his perspective on the Russian – American relationship since the disbanding of the Soviet Union in early 1990’s. Key Points:
    • Soviet leadership agreed to support the reunification of Germany and for Germany to remain a member of NATO. In exchange, America gave the Soviet leadership a ‘private assurance’ that NATO would not expand one inch east of Germany. 
    • Russia had hoped to be accepted into normal political and economic relationships with western nations because they abdicated communism in lieu of western style free-market capitalism.
    • Putin opened the door to Russia potentially joining NATO by asking President Clinton if he would be supportive. Clinton ultimately said No.
    • Putin communicated with HW Bush, in response to W Bush’s decision to develop a missile defense system, that Russia would like to partner with the U.S. and Europe to develop a missile defense system to protect all nations. W Bush’s national security team lead by Condoleezza Rice rejected Russia’s offer. This is why Russia developed the hypersonic missile systems to overwhelm the U.S. developed missile defense system. 
  3. Putin stated he has no expansionist interest.
    • Tucker asked him under what conditions would he attack Poland. Putin answered only if Poland attacked Russia. 
    • Tucker stated the Western countries’ concern regarding Russia’s attack on Ukraine is that he intends to go further into western Europe. Putin responded he has no interest in global wars that would threaten the existence of humanity.
    • Tucker asked how Putin “reconciles being a leader who has to kill with being a Christian?” Putin responded “It is very easy when it comes to protecting oneself and one’s family, one’s homeland. We won’t attack anyone.”
  4. Putin stated Russia is prepared to negotiate peace now.
    • Russia negotiated a peace agreement in 2014 (Minsk Agreement)
    • Russia negotiated a peace agreement in April 2022 that was scuttled by Boris Johnson at the behest of the United States.
    • America has stated they intend to use the War in Ukraine to weaken the Russian Military. 
  5. Putin stated America has made a stupid and grave mistake using the U.S. dollar as an instrument of force to control countries around the world. By seizing Russia’s U.S. dollar denominated reserves, America has sent a signal to the whole world that they may be subject to the same treatment. This has led to the expansion of BRICS and the increased use of the Chinese Yuan for international trade (including oil & natural gas). Putin stated these actions hurt American taxpayers in the same way they have hurt America’s allies, such as Germany. Putin warned America of the damage that will occur if we try to do the same with China.
  6. Putin rejected Tucker’s framing of the Russo-China relationship “as trading one colonial power for another” by stating “you don’t pick your neighbors like you don’t pick your family. Russia shares a 1,000 km border with China. We have co-existed as neighbors for centuries. We are used to each other. Russia sees China’s foreign policy is focused on seeking compromise…we accept that. Trade with China is mutually beneficial. Trade between China and Europe is growing faster than China and Russia. He rejects the ‘boogeyman’ story regarding China.” 

Putin’s comments above beg a critical question for us: Is what he is saying true?

On the question of why Russia attacked Ukraine:

  • The private assurance America gave the former Soviet leadership that NATO would not expand one inch east of Germany has been validated by multiple sources. The prevailing retort to this private assurance is Russia failed to get the agreement in writing. This is why Putin said America tricked Russia. At the height of the cold war during the Cuban Missile crisis, nuclear war was averted when President Kennedy gave Premier Khrushchev a ‘private assurance’ that if the U.S.S.R removed the missiles from Cuba, secretly, six months later, America would remove the nuclear missiles from Turkey.” Private assurances are very important tools used by nations to settle disputes in a manner that saves face for the participants. Given America’s history with the U.S.S.R, Gorbachev and Yeltsin had every reason to believe the U.S. when we gave them the private assurance not to expand NATO one inch east of Germany. It is important to also note the significance of Russia supporting the reunification of Germany as part of NATO. In WWII, the U.S.S.R lost over 20 million people at the hands of Germany. The creation of the Warsaw Pact, including East Germany, was to form a security buffer against western aggression [see Russian deaths in the Napoleonic Wars, WWI, and WWII].
  • The violent overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine is a matter of public record. The only question is whether America was involved. It has been reported that Victoria Nuland was recorded on tape informing the American Ambassador to Ukraine of who would comprise the new leadership in Ukraine before the overthrow had occurred. Since the point of the overthrow was to install Ukrainian leadership who would be open to joining NATO, anti-Russian Ukrainians were sought. Putin explained after the independence of Ukraine was granted in the early 1990’s, Ukraine sought to develop an independent identity, which they found in the anti-Russia collaborators with Nazi Germany during WWII. Putin stated the Ukrainians made heroes of the notable collaborators who had slaughtered Poles, Jews and Russians at the request of the Nazis. He referred to the debacle of the Speaker of the Canadian Parliament recognizing a Ukrainian Nazi, and along with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, gave the war criminal a standing ovation.

On the question of Russian Expansion vs. NATO expansion:

  • Since the dissolution of the U.S.S.R, Russia’s territorial boundaries are a matter of public record. Putin has led/controlled Russia since 2000. Where has Russia expanded? Where has NATO expanded?
  • Per a report by CNBC (see Two maps show NATO’s growth and Russia’s isolation since 1990 (cnbc.com)), NATO has expanded to include all the former WARSAW Pact countries and three countries that had been a part of the former Soviet Union.  
  • In response to Russia’s redline against including Ukraine in NATO, America has further expanded NATO to include Finland and Sweden. 

On the question of a negotiated peace in Ukraine:

  • Russia has negotiated peace agreements in 2014 and 2022 that were rejected by Ukraine at the behest of western countries. 
  • The U.S. Secretary of Defense publicly stated the goal of the War in Ukraine is to weaken the Russian military.
  • President Biden has publicly stated the goal of the War in Ukraine is for regime change in Russia.

On the question of why the dissolution of the U.S.S.R did not lead to full normalization and integration of Russia with western nations:

  • Russia tried multiple times and were rejected:
    1. Russia agreed to German reunification as part of NATO in exchange for no eastern expansion of NATO. Russia’s support of German reunification is a matter of public record. NATO has expanded to include all Warsaw Pact countries and three countries within the former U.S.S.R.
    2. Russia opened the door for consideration of joining NATO. President Clinton declined support. This can easily be verified by asking former President Clinton.
    3. Russia offered to develop a missile defense system with the U.S. and Europe. U.S. rejected offer. This can be easily verified by asking Condoleeza Rice.
    4. Russia demonstrated a willingness to partner with the U.S. by agreeing to safely enrich Iranian uranium under the Iran Nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama Administration. UN inspectors were validating Russia’s compliance until President Trump pulled out of the deal.
    5. Russia signed the Minsk Agreement after the U.S. had financed the violent overthrow of a democratically elected Ukrainian government. The Minsk Agreement is a matter of public record that has been acknowledged by Germany and France.
    6. Putin stated Russia is willing to negotiate peace in Ukraine now despite the U.S. blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline. Side Note: Seymore Hersh reported, and most analysts acknowledge, the U.S. blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.

On the question of the grave error of using the U.S. dollar as an instrument of force:

  • A cursory review of foreign sovereign U.S. denominated reserves confirms even America’s allies are diversifying:

(See Will The U.S. Dollar Lose Its Global Reserve Status? | Seeking Alpha)

My hope in taking the time to share this level of detail is to encourage you to invite Tucker Carlson on Breaking Points to have a ‘serious discussion’ [American style!] about the implications of the information shared by Vladimir Putin. Our government and our media have lied to us to a magnitude outlined in George Orwell’s “1984”. The War in Ukraine is not unique. The same playbook has been used in the War in Gaza. The prevailing narrative persistently is designed to ‘manufacture our consent’ [Thank you Noam Chomsky]. The Freedom of the Press is in the first amendment of the Constitution because it is the essential tool to inform the People of the truth so they can hold their elected officials accountable. 

Categories
Personal Growth Politics

Anatomy of the Lie

How do you know when you are being lied to?

Often, I don’t know. 

But when I consider the occasions when I have learned I was lied to, I notice a pattern emerging.

All lies start out as one source’s account of what happened. As long as I believe the source’s account, the lie appears to be true. Yet, as soon as I expand my perspective by trying to validate the source’s account, I begin the process of exposing the Lie.

Another pattern I noticed is the bigger the lie, the harder the liar works to get me to accept their version of events. In these occasions, any effort to explore alternative explanations are strongly discouraged. 

Consider a standard Lie:

“When my two sons, Patrick and Matthew, were young they loved candy. We used to keep a candy dish on the coffee table reserved for guests. One day, I entered the living room and noticed the candy dish was empty. I called Patrick and Matthew into the room and asked: “Do either of you know what happened to the candy in the candy dish?” Patrick said, “I don’t know.” Matthew said, “I saw Patrick eating the candy and when I asked for some, he wouldn’t give me any.” Patrick immediately denied eating any candy. Someone was obviously lying. As it turned out, I happened to notice Matthew’s pants pocket seemed full of something. I asked Matthew to empty his pockets. Grudgingly, Matthew emptied his pockets revealing the empty candy wrappers from the candy dish.”

In the simple example, Matthew’s lie could only be true if I explored no further than his account of what happened.

Now consider an outrageous Lie:

In the case of Genocide by Israel in Gaza, the claim is baseless and without merit.”[stated 1/3/2024 by John Kirby, Spokesperson, U.S. National Security Council]

In order for this statement to be true, an objective assessment of the case submitted to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by South Africa would reveal no substantive evidence was provided to support the claim. Yet on January 26th, 2024, 15 out of 17 judges of the ICJ ruled the evidence provided by South Africa was sufficient to support a claim that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza. 

In this severe example, the statement by John Kirby was a desperate attempt to invalidate any consideration of an alternative explanation. Why? Because any objective assessment would prove John Kirby’s statement was completely untrue.

Have you observed this pattern elsewhere?

The key take-away is to always get perspective on all explanations we are given, especially when we are told no other explanation is valid.

Categories
Economics Politics

America’s Last Stand

It is 2024 and once again we turn our tired eyes towards electing another President of the United States.

Why so tired? 

Biden vs. Trump…the election two-thirds of America does not want.

This is what the American Experiment has come down to…two of the least popular Presidents in U.S. history running in a rematch.

We could laugh it off for the pulp fiction it is if we were not facing a myriad of existential challenges:

  • A climate crisis requiring a rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 in order to avoid irreversible, catastrophic climate related impacts.
  • Unnecessary geopolitical conflicts: War in Ukraine, Genocide in Gaza threatening a U.S. War with Iran, while the drum beats for a U.S. war with China over Taiwan.
  • Severe Wealth & Income inequality radicalizing democratic governments around the world.

In our moment of greatest need, choosing the lesser of two evils will not do. 

This moment calls for our generation’s Abraham Lincoln…a leader who is capable of uniting independent minded Americans for the good of each other And our country.

Who is this leader? 

It is NOT President Joe Biden:

  • Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. We know this because the genocide is being live streamed on social media by Israeli Defense Forces and Palestinians in Gaza. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has determined the evidence submitted by South Africa supports a plausible case for genocide in Gaza, and the risk of ‘irreparable prejudice’ to the Palestinian people is sufficient to support Emergency provisions to order Israel to immediately stop killing, harming or denying essential food, water, shelter or medical care to the Palestinians in Gaza. The ICJ issued six Emergency provisions, four by a vote of 15 – 2 and two by a vote of 16 – 1. For the two 16 – 1 provisions [preventing & punishing incitement to commit genocide, and providing essential food, water & care], the Israeli Judge on the ICJ concurred. The American representative on the ICJ, President (Chief Judge) Joan Donoghue, concurred with all 6 Emergency provisions. Only Uganda opposed all Emergency provisions. 
  • Yet, President Biden claims the charge of genocide by Israel is baseless. He has provided exclusive diplomatic cover for Israel’s genocide by twice vetoing globally supported ceasefire petitions at the United Nations. He has circumvented U.S. law by providing billions in funding to Israel directly and deployed two aircraft carrier groups to the region in support of Israel without Congressional consent.
  • Biden has broken critical promises:
    • Failed to raise the federal minimum wage
    • Failed to provide $2,000 stimulus checks if Georgia elected both democratic senators
    • Failed to provide broad Student Loan Forgiveness
    • Forced Railroad Workers to end strike with no meaningful concessions from Corporate executives
    • Claims he is running for re-election to protect democracy from fascism when he has orchestrated the first sham Presidential primary season in U.S. history. State democratic parties are being pressured by the National Democratic Party to cancel primary elections and grant all delegates to President Biden. Florida has already complied.

It is NOT former President Trump:

  • While President Trump has successfully earned the anti-establishment moniker by eviscerating both President George W. Bush [for the War in Iraq] and Presidents Clinton and Obama [for selling out Middle & Working class Americans], he has done nothing to slow the multi-trillion dollar syphoning of wealth and income from the middle & working classes to the top 1% American earners.
  • The CARES Act passed March 2020 offered temporary relief to workers and small businesses (most expired by August 2020) while providing the Federal Reserve the seed funds to unleash $4 Trillion dollars in liquidity to large corporations. By year-end 2020, people who earned $27,000 or less lost 10 million jobs, 30% of all small businesses in America closed and never reopened, yet corporations boomed with the S&P 500 increasing 16.3% and the NASDAQ Composite increasing 43.6%. U.S. Billionaires’ wealth increased by over $1 Trillion dollars, while according to the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey: 33% of U.S. households are having a hard time covering basic expenses and 12% report food shortages.
  • President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a complete boondoggle for wealthy Americans by reducing corporate taxes from 35% to 21%, doubling the Estate tax eligibility threshold from $11 million per couple to $22 million, reducing the corporate pass-through tax by 20%, and reducing the highest earning individual tax bracket from 39.6% to 37%. Per the Tax Policy Center, the average annual benefit to top 1% earners is $61,090 while the median earners received just $910. 

America wants an Independent:

  • 2023 Gallop poll indicates 43% of Americans identify as Independent verses 27% for Democrats and 27% for Republicans

Independents need to borrow a page from former President Obama’s playbook. During the 2020 Democratic Primary, Senator Bernie Sanders was starting to run away with the race to the nomination. After tying in Iowa, Senator Sanders won New Hampshire, then blew away the field in Nevada. Establishment Democrats panicked. Over the next few weeks, leading up to Super Tuesday, President Obama encouraged centrist democrats Mayor Pete Buttigieg (#3 in delegates) and Amy Klobuchar (#4 in delegates) to drop out and endorse Biden (#2 in delegates) the day before Super Tuesday, while fellow liberal democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren (#5 in delegates) was encouraged to stay in the race to split the left leaning Super Tuesday voters. Senator Warren then dropped out two days later on March 5th, 2020. 

Independents and 3rd Party Candidates should use the Primary/Caucus season to make their best case to the American people. As we enter the summer while both establishment parties are having their coronation conventions, Independents and 3rd Party candidates can come together and determine the unifying agenda, then select the strongest Presidential ticket for the general election. Once an independent ticket is selected, national ballot access can be obtained by utilizing the coalition parties earned ballot access (i.e. Green, No Labels or Libertarian Party access). Independent and participating 3rd party organizations can work together in support of the newly selected independent ticket. 

What could be America’s unifying agenda?

According to the Rand Corporation, had the more equitable income distribution of the three decades after WWII (1945 – 1974) been maintained through today, all working Americans in the bottom 90% of earners would be doing much better. More specifically, you could pay each worker an additional $1,144 per month ($13,728 per year). The accumulated loss in earnings from 1975 to 2020 is estimated at $50 trillion dollars.

America needs the Clean New Deal.

The Clean New Deal is a two-part plan:

  • Establishment of a new national commitment to rebuild the American Middle Class:
    • National Jobs Guarantee with wages starting at Area Median Income
    • Develop a new National Renewable Energy Power Grid
    • Build a National Renewable Energy High Speed Rail System
    • Modernize & Repair the Nation’s Bridges and Transportation Infrastructure
    • Retrofit National Housing stock for Sustainability & Climate Risk Adaptation
    • Retrofit Excess Commercial Real Estate for Sustainable Multifamily Housing
    • Enact Medicare for All
    • National Student Loan Forgiveness
    • Free Public Vocational and College Education
    • Phase Down of the Global U.S. Military Footprint
    • Federal Tax Overhaul to restore pre-Reagan Progressive Tax Structure
  • Our new Independent President must appoint an Independent Counsel who will:
    • Investigate the Criminal Causes of the Multi-Trillion Dollar redistribution of Income & Wealth from Working and Middle Class Americans to the Wealthy Elites
    • Establish a standing Federal Grand Jury to interrogate Persons of Interest and bring Federal Indictments where appropriate
    • Make recommendations to the Congress for Impeachment of any Office Holders found to have engaged in actionable activities within the scope of the Independent Counsel
    • Make Recommendations for Federal Legislation to repeal or modify any law that is found to have facilitated the extraordinary redistribution of income and wealth

If given a credible independent choice for President and a unifying agenda, America will reject the lesser of two evils and elect the first independent President of the United States.

No doubt it will be a moonshot, but so is America…the first country in the world to declare “we hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal…”.

Categories
Economics Politics

Why Quantifying Climate Risk is the Wrong Question

Climate changes everything, even traditional approaches to risk management.

A typical risk management process includes a risk assessment by probability & timeliness of occurrence and quantification of impact on business operations. Risks are then prioritized based on the magnitude and timeliness of impact. Risk mitigation strategies are developed which provide capital requirements. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis is completed to establish the risk tolerance for the organization.

This process will not work for climate change risk mitigation. Why?

Climate Change is a planetary phenomenon that is producing climate-related impacts which are building exponentially over a multi-decade period. As such, the timeliness of material climate-related impacts is apt to exceed the strategic horizon for most businesses.

Climate Change presents a global challenge with no historical reference points in modern civilization*. In the absence of historical reference points, quantifying future climate-related impacts requires first understanding how global warming changes the Earth’s ecology, then how a changing ecology impacts the economy. One lesson from over 40 years of global climate models is even the scientific community has persistently underestimated climate-related impacts due to the cascading, interconnected characteristics of the global ecology.

Given these challenges, producing actionable data in the near-term on future client-related impacts is a dubious proposition.

What now? On what basis do we proceed to mitigate climate-related risk?

Qualitative analysis.

The accumulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere is accelerating planetary warming, which is rapidly altering weather patterns and causing material degradation to crop yields, fresh water, biodiversity and other ecological systems necessary to sustain human life.

Climate change presents an existential challenge that will likely have unimaginable impact on future generations if we do not act immediately.

The best-known method to slow and ultimately stop the global warming is a rapid reduction in global GHG emissions. To this end, the global signatures to the Paris Agreement set a goal to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with an optimal target goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This goal can only be achieved with the active participation and cooperation of the global community.

No country or multi-national organization can meet the challenges presented by climate change alone.

The developed nations cannot meet the challenges presented by climate change without the developing nations.

The timely transition to a net-zero carbon economy will require the cooperation of fossil fuel interests who would need to choose to keep a third of all known oil reserves, 50% of all natural gas reserves, and 80% of all coal reserves untapped if we are to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Can we do it?

Yes.

Once we realize our progeny may face extinction level events if we fail to meet this challenge.

*For 10,000 years, the global average surface temperature has remained stable within a standard deviation of 1 degree Celsius. Since approximately 1850, the accumulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has increased the average global surface temperature 1.2 degrees Celsius. Accordingly, the global average surface temperature is trending warmer than at any other point in modern history.

Categories
Politics

An Open Letter regarding the War in Ukraine

Dear friend,

I have been thinking about our discussion regarding the War in Ukraine. I believe we have an understanding on where we each stand in regard to the conflict but I will restate for the sake of clarity.

Your view is Russia initiated the escalation of the conflict by launching a military attack against Ukraine. As the aggressor, you hold Russia responsible for the humanitarian crisis occurring in Ukraine. You are aware there are historical events that may have contributed to the current conflict, but no historical event justifies Russia’s military attack on Ukraine. Your hope is the Russians will overthrow Putin and his government apparatus.

My view is the United States instigated the conflict by breaking the verbal assurance given by Presidents H.W Bush & Clinton provided to Gorbachev and Yeltsin to limit NATO’s eastern expansion beyond the unified Germany. In exchange for the private assurance (the same type of assurance that resolved the Cuban Missile crisis), the former U.S.S.R agreed to support unified Germany’s admission into NATO and the peaceful dismantling of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union executed the dissolution, including gathering the nuclear arsenal from the satellite states to Russia, and supported German re-unification and entry into NATO. At the time of the private assurance, there were 10 former U.S.S.R. Warsaw PACT nations.

Starting in the late 1990’s, NATO began the practice of adding former Warsaw Pact nations. Currently seven of the original ten countries have been admitted into NATO. With each new addition, the American Military Industrial complex modernized the former Warsaw Pact countries to NATO grade military weaponry including some with ballistic missiles. With each new NATO addition, Russia lodged vigorous complaints and threats of military escalation to restore the security buffer between Europe and Russia.

One month since the beginning of the War in Ukraine, Russia has stated they will end the war and withdraw from Ukraine if the following four conditions are met:

  1. Ukraine sign a neutrality agreement that would bar it from entering NATO
  2. Recognize Crimea as Russian
  3. Recognize Luhansk and Donetsk as independent
  4. Agree to a mutual cease fire

Ukraine has indicated they would no longer pursue admission into NATO and are open to a neutrality agreement. Ukraine has asked America to empower them in the negotiations by tying the removal of international economic sanctions to the Ukrainian negotiated peace agreement. Thus far we have refused.

We are at a stalemate in our discussion. We must agree to disagree.

What remains is the question of regime change in Russia, which President Biden acknowledged on his recent European trip. On this issue I believe America, even as the sole superpower, is over her skis.

The world is watching as we have weaponized economic sanctions beyond any historical reference point, to overthrow a G20 & permanent UN Security Council nation for reasons we have been guilty of many times over. This is the latest example of how we have chosen to lead the world…as a petulant nation that has sacrificed our moral standing on the iron altar of brute force. This approach has only hardened our enemies and given our friends pause, because we have been arrogant enough to affirm many times our America first foreign policy agenda. Given the opportunity, the EU, UK, Canada and other ‘friends’ may jump at the chance to break free of our yoke.

Our overplay of the War in Ukraine by revealing the intent to overthrow Putin, may induce China to partner with Russia to establish an alternative to the Swift exchange system. This would be the opening needed to establish a new international currency of trade. Russia is already requiring the EU to pay for oil and natural gas in Rubles. Saudi Arabia is not accepting President Biden’s calls, and have demonstrated an interest in using a different currency for OPEC oil transactions. If an alternative exchange system is organized with China, Russia, and potentially OPEC, this will give our “friends” an alternative to our American dominated SWIFT system. My point here is force has a limit when you are interdependent on your subordinate nation-state partners.

At the heart of the matter, my world view is not political. My worldview is spiritual. When I look at the US-dominated prevailing narrative over the last 50 years, we are persistently given an enemy to focus our hate…U.S.S.R, Iran, terrorists (including Iraq & Afghanistan), North Korea and now Putin (Russia). Each of our “enemies” had verifiable facts that paint a foggier picture than the clear cut vilification story we are fed by the media and our government.

The pre-curser to the Cuban Missile crisis is the United States deployed ballistic missiles in Turkey. The Soviets responded by installing the missiles in Cuba. We then escalated to a threatened nuclear exchange because nuclear armed ballistic missiles deployed in Cuba violated the American security buffer. The crisis was resolved when America gave the Russians a private assurance to quietly remove the ballistic missiles from Turkey six months after the Soviets agreed to remove their missiles from Cuba.

In 1953, the United States orchestrated the overthrow of the democratically elected leader of Iran in order to protect British oil interests. Prime Minister Mosaddegh was ousted in favor of a pro-American government led by the Shah of Iran. By the 1970’s, after years of brutal treatment of dissidents, the Shah was overthrown by the Iranian Revolutionary Army. The new Iranian government’s first official act was to seize the American embassy in Tehran. When the US arranged safe asylum in the Philippines for the Shah, after seriously considering providing safe harbor in the US, negotiations for the hostages’ release broke down. After Iran surrendered the hostages at the start of the Reagan administration, we punished the Iranians by arming the Iraqis with chemical and biological weapons in the Iraqi-Iranian War of the 1980’s, effectively killing hundreds of thousands of Iranians. Our repeated aggression with Iran, only exacerbated by branding them a member of the Axis of Evil, inspired Iran’s proxy war with the US where they sponsored terrorist organizations throughout the region.

America’s role in the proliferation of terrorism in the 1990’s and beyond continued in the Soviet-Afghanistan War of the 1980’s. Here an Islamic militia called the Mujaheddin was armed and trained by the US to embroil the Soviets in a quagmire conflict that effectively broke the morale of the Soviet military as they were forced to retreat back to the Soviet Union.

Iraq, emboldened by their success at repelling the much larger Iranian military, turned their attention to Kuwait where they claimed the country as the 13th Iraqi state. The brazen act of aggression sent shock waves around the globe based on the fear the Iraqis may extend their aggression to include Saudi Arabia. To repel this threat on the Arabian peninsula, Osama Bin Laden offered the Saudi Royal Family to re-enlist the victorious Mujaheddin to repel the Iraqi forces back out of Kuwait. The offer was made to protect the home of Mecca, Islamic holy of the holies, from Iraqi infidels. Instead, the Saudi Royal Family made a deal with America to repel Iraq from Kuwait in exchange for a number of permanent US military bases in Saudi Arabia. The establishment of permanent US military bases in Saudi Arabia, home of Mecca, is the cited basis for Bin Laden’s Fatwa against America and the Saudi Royal Family that ultimately led to the terrorist attacks on 9/11.

Many countries have aspirations for developing nuclear weapons. Libya established a WMD program in the 1990’s. After years of US led pressure, in 2004, Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi agreed to dismantle the country’s nuclear weapons program. By 2011, a US-led NATO attack on Libya supported a successful uprising to overthrow the government of Muammar Gaddafi, who was murdered in October 2011. Is it mere coincidence North Korea has since accelerated their nuclear weapons program to include multiple launch attempts?

My point here is to illuminate geopolitical motivations are far more complicated than the black and white vilification narratives propagated by the media and our government. Manufactured consent is a virulent cancer to any healthy democracy. Resist first by rejecting the prevailing narrative, then seek the facts as best as you can.

Categories
Economics Politics Social Evolution

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words…

Network – Howard Beale…

https://youtu.be/MRuS3dxKK9U
“I’m a human being, goddamnit! My life has value!”

Yet the wrong people got mad and we learned the wrong lesson.

Wall Street – Gordon Gekko

“Greed is Good.”

And so it is…

The Big Short – Jared Vennett explains Wall Street’s mortgage backed securities con.

“It’s all shit.”

Predators eat their own…

Margin Call – John Tuld

“Sell it all. Today.”

And it wasn’t just a movie…

U.S. Senate Hearing – Senator Levin grills Goldman Sachs – 2010

“How Goldman got comfortable (screwing their own clients)”

Then the predators blame the prey…

Rick Santelli Rant – 2/19/2009

“Do we want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages.”

Comedy becomes the last refuge of truth – Jon Stewart exposes Jim Cramer

“F@#k you!”

But the suffering is real…

Up in the Air – You’re Fired

“I think the anger comes from I just wasn’t needed anymore.”

“Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.”

Joker – 2019

“Everything Must Go!”

Surely a global pandemic will bring us together…

PBS Newshour – Judy Woodruff

“How the pandemic has exposed America’s deep divide.”

And yet we have a much bigger problem…

Natural Disasters from climate change – December 22 to 25, 2021

https://youtu.be/RoJv1IzPBk8
These severe weather events are occuring because global average surface temperature has increased 1.07°C since 1850. (See UN’s 6th IPCC report – 8/2021)

Will we notice the threat of climate change?

Don’t Look Up – Interview: Leonardo DiCaprio

“We have a finite window of 10 years to make this transition.”
Categories
COVID-19 Economics Politics

How Wealthy Elites Chose to Betray the American Working Class…

Greed is not new, but previous generations learned hard lessons about the perils of consolidating wealth in too few hands. The gilded age led to the Great Depression of the 1890’s, and the roaring 20’s led to the stock market crash of 1929 and the great depression of the 1930’s.

Out of necessity, FDR instituted the new deal framework that reined in excessive financial speculation and established the modern social safety net. Add in expanded access to college education and home ownership in the 1950’s and you have the largest and most prosperous working class in global history.

Then Lewis Powell writes the Powell memo to the US Chamber of Commerce in 1971 as a call to arms for American corporations to co-opt the media, university system, and the government to advance the interest of American corporations. Powell was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1972 while major corporations deployed the strategy outlined in the memo.

American wealthy elites learned from 1950-1970, broad based prosperity was too expensive because they could not control the American people. By 1970, working class Americans were transforming the country through the civil rights movement,  anti-war movement, equal rights movement, and were attempting to organize a poor man’s march on Washington D.C. when Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis.

Yet the wealthy elites knew the lessons of previous efforts to consolidate wealth in too few hands had led to ruinous depressions. Their solution was to make wealth insulated from depressions by privatizing profits and socializing losses.

First, President Reagan dealt a death knell to the American Labor movement by firing the striking air traffic controllers in 1981. Then President HW Bush negotiated, and President Bill Clinton supported the ratification of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which de-industrialized America by off-shoring millions of manufacturing jobs.

By the late 1990’s, Wall Street forced Congress to repeal Glass-Steagall by merging Travelers Insurance with Citibank, which gave Congress one year to break up the largest financial services company in the world. Congress caved and repealed Glass-Steagall. Then in the lame duck Congress at the end of Bill Clinton’s presidency, Congress passed sweeping legislation deregulating complex financial instruments.

Wall Street then utilized complex collateralized debt obligations rated AAA by captive credit rating agencies to loot restricted institutional investors like pension funds, life insurance companies and municipal investors, and prey on unsuspecting residential mortgage holders. By the end of 2006, institutional investors stopped buying the mis-rated securities, which trapped homeowners in rapidly escalating adjustable rate mortgages and destroyed the investment banks that got caught holding trillions of dollars of worthless securities.

Some banks hedged their fraudulent investments with credit default swaps that bankrupted AIG (the world’s largest insurance company). Wall Street’s exit strategy was “too big to fail”, perfectly executed by former Goldman CEO, Hank Paulsen, who was selected to be W’s perfectly timed Treasury Secretary.

The great recession protected wealth while millions of Americans lost jobs, homes, pensions, and retirement savings. No major player went to jail because President Clinton made the complex financial instruments legal, and President Obama refused to use the RICO laws to prosecute the rampant fraud on the American people (Google “William K Black”).

The method was replicated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The CARES Act gave temporary support to individuals and small businesses (which expired by August 2020), while authorizing the Federal Reserve to ‘invest’ $4.25T in large multi-national corporations. By year-end, 2020 GDP contracted 3.5%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased 7.2%, S&P 500 increased 16.3%, Russell 2000 increased 18.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 43.9%. US billionaires net worth increased over a trillion dollars, while 30% of all small businesses failed, and workers with annual wages of $26,000 or less lost 10 million jobs.

Thankfully, the American working class is fighting back. For the first time in 40 years, there are multiple strikes ongoing across America involving thousands of workers in deep red (Alabama) and dark blue (New York) states. The great resignation has totaled over 32 million workers with monthly recurring all-time records in August (4.2 million workers quit) and September (4.3 million).

Now is the time for each of us to decide with whom do we stand?

I stand with the working class.

Categories
Economics Politics Social Evolution

A Path to Sustainability…

COP26 is merely the start of our transformation to a 21st century sustainable economy. As it stands now we have non-binding commitments to cut GHG emissions 50% by 2030.

Here is what we need:

Binding commitments to tie net zero transition to a peak global average surface temperature increase of 1.5°C.

Graduated carbon pricing of $100 per ton by 2025, $125 by 2030, and $150 by 2035 & thereafter.

Acknowledgement of the carbon budget from 1850 to peak temperature increase of 1.5°C.

Retroactive carbon price of $50 per ton charged to the wealthy nations who benefitted most from the 2,400 GtCO2 of carbon pollution emitted since 1850. This $120T will initially capitalize the Global Net Zero Transition Fund. Future carbon pricing proceeds will be injected directly into the Fund.

Establish a fossil fuel stranded assets regime that will tie future subsidies and stranded assets compensation to investment in scaling up sustainable energy power generation including new sources such as green hydrogen, and ammonia.

Establish a Leap Frog power generation program for India, China and the emerging world funded by the Global Net Zero Transition Fund. Leap Frog means increasing energy production from carbon-free, sustainable energy sources.

Require all businesses to disclose a decarbonization transition plan tied to the peak temperature increase of 1.5°C and inclusive of 95% of scope 1, scope 2, and scope 3 emissions by 2025 or face 2030 carbon pricing fees.

Establish a global anti-profiteering regime capping Return on Investment for Net Zero Transition activities. We will not succeed if investors can impose economic rents at every stress point.

Can we do it?

Yes…

If enough of us convince the wealthy elites they will not escape the price of inaction.

Categories
Economics Politics

Just the facts*

For 10,000 years the average global surface temperature remained stable within 1°Celsius.

Stable temperature produced consistent weather patterns that allowed humanity to develop farming. Farming allowed humanity to produce surplus food that supported faster population growth, trade, and ultimately modern civilization.

Carbon, methane and other greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere causes global warming.

For every 1,000 GtCO2 of carbon in the atmosphere, the average global surface temperature increases 0.45°C.

Since 1850 (about the beginning of the industrial revolution), the accumulated carbon pollution in the atmosphere is 2,390 GtCO2.

Currently, human activity is putting 40 GtCO2 of carbon pollution in the atmosphere per year.

For all the talk about limiting greenhouse gas pollution, the amount of carbon pollution is increasing each year by an increasing amount.

The 60-year average yearly increase in carbon pollution is 1.61%.

The 10-year average yearly increase in carbon pollution is 2.4%.

The 30-year projected average yearly increase in carbon pollution is 3.5%.

We have all noticed the proliferation of extreme weather events in recent years. Huge forest fires throughout the western and Pacific northwestern US, Greece, and Australia. Torrential rainfall and flooding in Tennessee, Germany, Belgium, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Tropical storms escalating into category 4 Hurricanes in Asia and the Gulf of Mexico. Severe heat waves bringing 115°F weather to Portland, Seattle, and as far north as Saskatchewan (Canada).

All these extreme weather events are due to global average surface temperature increasing 1.07°C since 1850.

We currently have more carbon in our atmosphere than the Earth has experienced in 800,000 years.

By comparison, the last ice age ended 15,000 years ago.

At the rate of annual greenhouse gas pollution, global climate scientist estimate average global surface temperature will increase since 1850 by 1.5°C in 2035.

At 1.5°C, the rate and intensity of extreme weather events will be unprecedented in the historical observational record.

And if you think we have plenty of time to reverse the greenhouse pollution in the atmosphere causing global warming, in order to give the planet a 50% chance not to exceed 1.5°C by 2050, our 30-year average annual carbon pollution cannot exceed 16.67 GtCO2.

That is 58% less than our current annual carbon pollution of 40 GtCO2 per year for the next 30 years.

The climate crisis is real, and it is here. The economy exists within the ecology. Get educated on what sustains human life.

*The source of the data cited here is the science basis of the Summary for Policymakers from the UN’s 6th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Every member country of the United Nations has endorsed the findings of the report.

The Summary for Policymakers is 42 pages long (the whole report in almost 4,000 pages long).

Here is the link for your review:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM